Chris Berman is Rod Black is Chris Berman

ESPN's broadcast (seen by me in Canada via Roger's Sportsnet) of last night's MLB Home Run Derby was one of the most painful-to-watch television productions I have come across in a long time (mind you, I don't watch that much TV). At the forefront of the giant turd was Chris Berman, from ESPN. The producers of Sesame Street show much more respect for the intelligence of their audience, than did the braniacs at ESPN who gave us the caricature that is Chris Berman hosting the show: belting out the same "Back, Back, Back..." line he has used for 25 plus years, or yelling out for cheers from various sections of the crowd at the opening of the show.     

I was thinking about the broadcast today, and I concluded that Chris Berman is the Rod Black (long time TSN/CTV sports broadcaster) of American Sports Broadcasting (or more accurately Rod Black is the Chris Berman of Canadian Sports Broadcasting).They both show up to events unprepared, with nothing interesting to say, and yet blather on with their respective annoying shticks at relatively large sporting events within their country. Also, both rely on the fact that they have been at their networks since the beginning of time to still get high profile gigs. Sports is often an old-boys club, and these dinosaurs have reaped the benefit of this fact for a long time. 

In Berman's defense, I think that people actually liked his broadcasting at some point in time (I was really too young during the period I allude to though, so can't say for sure either way), while for Black, I am quite confident that his longevity is due solely to the fact that he was on the ground floor at TSN. All I can say is the best before date on both of these dudes has long passed. There is way too much talent in the sports broadcasting communities of both the US and Canada for both Black and Berman to still be given prime time work. 

   

The Case of the King Street Bagel Bandit

Today was a peculiar day in the life of Micky C. It began with me carrying out my usual duties at the Toronto software company where I work, and ended with me being a prominent part on one of my favourite sports podcasts/radio shows - Tim and Sid Uncut.

At a little after 11am I walked down to the Tim Hortons at the corner of King and John to get myself a 12 grain bagel with cream cheese, and a medium decaf coffee with milk. While waiting in line I noticed immediately behind me a young man who it occurred to me looked quite a bit like one Ryan "Hainser" Hains, a "personality" at The Score Television/Radio Network (I recognized him from his twitter profile, and a video segment that aired during the 2010 World Cup in which he was called upon to pronounce the names of various soccer players. Though when I first saw him I was confident it was Hainser, I wasn't certain of his identity until I heard him make his order - Hainser has a very distinct mumbly voice). I believe Hainser's primary job at The Score is producer, though on Tim and Sid Uncut he appears on a regular segment called "Hainser's Corner" (a play on Coach's Corner) in which Hainser answers questions posed by Sid and Tim in a quirky, often hilarious way.

Upon recognizing Hainser, I thought of getting his attention, and saying hello, but chose not to. I usually find it awkward to approach people you only know from TV or radio in order to say hello. Furthermore, my office is quite close to The Score studios, so I see people from the network on the street all the time. Anyhow, I proceeded to make my order and wait for my bagel to be ready. At this particular location when you order an item that takes some time to prepare, the cashier assigns you a number and asks you to wait to the side (my number was 20). Immediately afterward, Hainser, wearing red sneakers, and carrying a bottle of Orangina, ordered his extra large double-double coffee, and some sort of english muffin sandwich, and stood beside me wating for his food to be prepared (he apparently had been given the number 21). A couple of orders were called before mine, and then an employee emerged with a bag, calling out 20. Immediately, without even batting an eye, Hainser reached for my bagel order, though his order was 21. I was temporarily caught off guard, but owing to my lengthy arms was able to reach out and claim my bagel before my adversary could make off with my delicious pre-lunch snack. Hainser was unphased by what transpired, and continued to peacefully stand awaiting the next order.

Upon getting back to work I thought to myself that it would be worthwhile for me to bring this little story to the attention of the hosts of Tim and Sid, Tim Micallef and Sid Seixeiro. Two prominent features of the show are input from listeners, and having fun at the expense of Hainser, so the attempted bagel swipe was perfect. At 11:50 am I sent out the following tweet "@Sid_Seixeiro @tim_micallef #hainsertriedtostealmybagel at the Timmies on King". I was hoping the guys would get a kick out of the tweet, and at most tweet me back to get more information. However, I was shocked when I listened in at work five minutes into the show to hear Hainser being questioned on air as to whether or not he had made an attempt at stealing the bagel of one Ryan Micky C Barron - they actually opened the show talking about the bagel story. Pretty funny stuff, check it out here.

The Heat Have Long Moved Past the “Whose Team is It" Question

Throughout this NBA season, when it comes to the Miami Heat, the media has been obsessed with questions such as “Is this team Lebron's team or is it Dwayne Wade's team?”. I do not know for certain why these sort of things come up, but I believe it tends to occur most often in situations where Wade is used as the go to guy down the stretch, and media members (and fans) try to portray this as some sort of weakness on Lebron's part. An example of this line of questioning came up in a press conference after the Heat had won Game 3 of The NBA Finals over the Mavericks, in Dallas, on Sunday - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ho3_xNSHE6Q (hopefully the video is still up). A reporter in a not too subtle way questions Lebron about his forth quarter performance, suggesting that he is not performing like a “superstar” and "shrinking from the moment". The reporter is alluding to the fact that Lebron only scored a combined 9 points in the fourth quarters of the first three games of the championship series. Lebron responded to him in a matter of fact way, saying that he felt he had been playing strongly on the defensive side of the court, and that the team had chosen to use D Wade as the number one option in the fourth quarter of these games.

The thing that people don't get about the Miami Heat is that this team does not have a “Number 1 guy” and a “Number 2 guy”, it has two “Number 1 guys”. They have two guys who have the type of skill-sets that allow them to be the focal point, and number one option of an effective offense. Though it is annoying, I could understand the media's fixation with trying to determine who the number one guy on the Heat was at various stages in the regular season. An NBA team having two “Number 1 option superstars” who both like to play with the ball in their hands, on the wing, is unique. On the vast majority of teams, there is a clear number one option, ball in hand player, and a number two option player. Additionally, role definition questions of this type must to a certain degree have been a source of difficulty at various points of the season for the Heat coaching staff and players. Practical decisions need to be made such as who will be given the ball in situation A? What will the other player be doing at this time? How should the play that will be run look? Though this is the case, and at certain points in the season Lebron and Wade's roles had to be defined, anyone watching the playoffs would need to acknoledge that the roles have ben clearly sorted out: both players are number one options, but at different times.

The way I see how the Heat have operated offensively during the playoffs is that they essentially have two offensive modalities, one that revolves around D Wade and the other that revolves around Lebron. When I talk about offenses here, I am not necessarily talking about any specific plays, or schemes, just that in one offensive mode the ball is going to rest in Wade's hands more often for a period of time, and in the other it will be in Lebron's – think of a football team having two different quarterbacks, who they rotate on a regular basis to take the snaps, while either player's counterpart lines up as a running back. The value that is inherent in this sort of approach is that you can alternate the roles to the team's strategic advantage. For example, if Lebron's jump shot is falling, he will be the number one option for a quarter; if no one on the other team can guard Wade, and he is feeling it, he will have the ball in his hands on the wing more often. The reason this type of dynamic is so powerful is that basketaball is a game of streaks in which some nights you cannot miss a shot, while on others, for whatever reason you cannot make one. Also, in basketball it is very important to consider which player on your team is matched up against a relatively disadvantaged defender. In this series so far, we have seen both of these dynamics come into play: Dwayne Wade has been exceptionally “hot” in the first three games, and Wade is matched up against Jason Kidd who has a difficult time guarding Wade due to differences in size and speed, while Lebron has been guarded by Shaun Marion who  is well suited to covering James. It is therefore reasonable that the Heat have shifted to an attack where the ball if more often in Wade's hands than it is in Lebron's.

From my point of view, it is rather ridiculous for reporters to try and suggest that there is anyway in which Lebron has perfromed in a manner that detracts from his “superstardom” in the first three games of the series, by allowing Wade to get the majority of the offensive touches in the fourth quarter and lead their team to a 2 to 1 series lead – would they suggest the same of Wade for allowing Lebron to lead their team in a similar manner at the end of a number of games in the Celtics and Bulls series. Basically, Eric Spoelstra and his team implemented a plan at some point during the season, and some people for whatever reason haven't realized this. Sometimes, it will “be Lebron's team”, sometimes it will be Wade's. The role definition is necessary fluid, and it changes whenever it is advantageous for the change to take place. Neither Lebron nor Wade should be criticized when for periods of time they abdicate their role as central offensive to the other player, for the betterment of the team – they should be praised. This degree of trust in each other and the dynamic it creates, combined with both players improving their away-from the ball play for periods when they are temporarily the second option, should make this pair very difficult to stop for years to come, regardless of the other role players they are surrounded with. Furthermore, Eric Spoelstra and his coaching staff should be applauded for working with Lebron, Wade and the rest of the team to commit to this unconventional offensive approach. 

Buying Low on Bautista

Coming into the start of this MLB season, if you were to have looked at Toronto Blue Jay Jose Bautista's career statistics, you would have had to acknowledge that the Blue Jays signing him to a five year, sixty five million dollar contract posed a significant risk to the organization. Though he had had a seven month stretch of MVP-like power production prior to the 2011 season, for the previous six years of his career Bautista was a reserve player. Toronto Blue Jays general manager had a huge decision to make: he had to decide what type of contract the team would offer their right field, given that Bautista's existing contract was due to expire at the end of the 2011 baseball season: “Should the contract be based on expectations that Bautista will continue to perform at his 2010 level of performance, opening the team up to the risk of substantial overpayment, or should the team hedge its bets, give Bautista a one or two year contract, and hope that if he continues to excel, they can still afford him when his contract is up again. Jays GM Alex Anthopoulus ended up avoiding the “safe” approach, and paid Bautista more money, for a longer period of time than most people thought it was reasonable to pay him at the time, given the short duration of his recent excellent form. The risk for Anthopoulus in this move was compounded by the fact that he had in his relatively short tenure as GM become very much trusted by Blue Jays fans as an executive who makes wise decisions with the organization's money.

Decisions on baseball contracts are essentially a question of making an investment. As is the case with investments in the stock market, real estate, or any other kind of asset, everything boils down to assessing value. One of the necessary skills for stock market investing is being able to assess the true value of an asset, and comparing it with its market value. Obviously when you feel a stock is over valued it is a good time to sell it, and when it is undervalued it is a good time to buy. The average baseball team, if it is to compete with the other teams in its division, needs to get good returns on its investment in players in order to succeed. However in the current AL East Division, unless you are the Yankees or Red Sox, good returns are not enough; you need to get GREAT return on your investments. I think in order to be a good organization, you need to know who are the players to buy, but in order to become a great baseball organization, you also have to master the questions of WHEN to buy those players.

Obviously it is still very early to say how Bautista's contract will work out for the Jays over the long term. However, it must be acknowledged that this could potentially be an outstanding deal for the organization. It is my view that moves that have the ROI potential we see in Anthopoulus' signing of Bautista are not achievable if you rely solely on the type of completely risk-averse strategy of relying solely on conventional statistical analysis of past performance. To beat the market you have to see an emerging trend before it actually has become a trend – you need to see that an asset is worth more than the numbers are telling everyone it is worth. The market for Bautista's talents at the start of the year (i.e. Based on the 1 year and a month of superb performance figures and six years of mediocre numbers) would have suggested a contract for less money and fewer years (many sports analysts suggested around 2 years at $10Mil per year would have been fair) than the contract that Alex Anthopoulus gave to the player (5 years at $13 Mil per year). However, for some reason the Jays general manager felt that Jose Bautista's market value was lower than his actual value. If Bautista continues to perform as he has been Anthopoulus will have been able to lock up an exceptionally talented slugger for a long time, at a bargain price (see the figures below to get a sense of how Bautista's recent production along with his future contract figures compares with some of the top power hitters in the game). Anthopoulus' decision may still blow up in his face, but at this stage in the game (and based upon Bautista's continued success about a 1/4 a way into the MLB season), at least you can see the rationale behind the decision to take the risk.

Comparisson Between Bautista and Other Top MLB Sluggers

Adrian Gonzales (Age 29) - 2010: 31 HR; 101 RBI; .298 BA; .511 SLG

2011 (until May 15th): 9 HR; 34 RBI; .319 BA; .577 SLG

*** On a contract paying him $22 Mil per year over 7 years

Albert Pujols (Age 31): - 2010: 42 HR; 118 RBI; .312 AVG; .596 SLG

2011 (until May 15th) - 7 HR; 24 RBI; .266 AVG; .418 SLG

*** Expected to sign a contract of around $25 Mil per year over 8 years

Ryan Howard (Age 31) 2010 - 31 HR; 108 RBI; .276 BA; .505 SLG

2011 (until May 15th) - 9 HR; 35 RBI; .260 BA; .513

*** On a contract paying him $25 Mil per year over 5 years.

Jose Bautista (Age 30) - 2010: 54 HR; 124 RBI; .260 BA; .617 SLG

2011 (until May 15th) - 16 HR; 27 RBI; .368 BA; .868 SLG

*** On a contract of $13 Mil per year over 5 years